Barcelona, condemned to the playoffs in Champions according to the Opta Supercomputer

With just seven points from the 12 at stake, the team led by Hansi Flick currently occupies the eleventh position, two units away from the zone that grants direct access to the Round of 16. Given the footballing doubts displayed and a demanding schedule in the upcoming dates, several analysts predict that the Blaugrana team could be forced to play in the February playoffs. In the same line, the ‘Opta Supercomputer’, a tool specialized in statistical predictions, agrees that this could be the most likely destination for the culés.

The prediction of the ‘Supercomputer’

According to the calculations of the Opta model, Mikel Arteta´s Arsenal is shaping up as the big favorite to finish the league phase at the top, with 20.26 expected points. The English team, semifinalists in the previous edition, is going through an excellent moment, leading the Premier League and sharing a record with Bayern Munich and Inter Milan as the only teams that have won all their matches in Champions. Precisely the Bavarian team, now under the direction of Vincent Kompany, would be second in the projection, with 19.38 expected points. In third place is Pep Guardiola´s Manchester City, with 17.97 points. After an irregular previous season, Guardiola´s team has regained the dominant level that led them to win numerous titles in recent years. The rest of the top-8 is completed by Arne Slot´s Liverpool (17.16 expected points), Inter Milan (16.96), the reigning champion PSG (16.58), Xabi Alonso´s Real Madrid (16.01), and a surprising Newcastle (14.89). The latter barely surpasses Flick´s Barça, which with 14.67 expected points remains in ninth place, just outside the direct qualification for the Round of 16.

What Barça needs to qualify

Although the ‘Supercomputer’ establishes that the barrier for direct qualification is at 15 points, last season the last team to sneak into the top eight was Aston Villa with 16 points. Following that reference, Barça should drop a maximum of three or four points in the remaining four matchdays, where they will face Chelsea and Slavia Prague away, in addition to Eintracht Frankfurt and Copenhagen at Spotify Camp Nou. This season, moreover, it is especially relevant to finish as high as possible in the table, as in the knockout rounds the team best positioned in the league phase will have the privilege of playing the return match at home, something that did not happen last season.